{
  "_comment": "Our own past daily model estimates for oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz -- OUR model's outputs, not a republished third-party series. See site/data/hormuz.json for the EIA figures the model is calibrated against, and sources.html/methodology.md for how the estimate and its range are built. Every entry is an estimate, never a measurement. 'suppressed': true means no daily figure was published that day because the estimate fell past our back-tested horizon -- this was retired 2026-10-08 (methodology.md section 39) in favour of always publishing a widened-band extrapolation, so it should only appear on rows dated before that change; point/band_low/band_high are null on those rows by design, not a missing-data accident. 'extrapolated': 'B' or 'C' means the row is a real published figure but past our back-tested horizon, with a correspondingly wider band (methodology.md section 39); null means a normal backtested estimate. Appended and idempotently updated in place by scripts/refresh_estimate.py via scripts/generate_history.py.",
  "generated_utc": "2026-11-02T13:26:53Z",
  "entries": [
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-16",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-17T15:25:03Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": null,
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": null
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-17",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-18T02:22:53Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": null,
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": null
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-18",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-19T17:15:37Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 80
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-20T09:46:39Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 81
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-20",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-21T10:39:21Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 82
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-21",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-22T09:54:32Z",
      "point": 4.9,
      "band_low": 1.5,
      "band_high": 6.9,
      "band_basis": "Back-tested one-quarter-ahead error of the persistence model across the disrupted regime: roughly -70% to +40% of the anchor (1Q26 error +45%, 2Q26 error +204%; calm-regime error max 1.4%). Applied to the 4.9 anchor and rounded to 1 d.p.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "persistence",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 83
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-22",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-23T11:09:46Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 84
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-23",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-24T09:57:01Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 85
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-24",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-25T10:09:51Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 86
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-25",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-26T09:50:06Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 87
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-26",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-27T10:31:46Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 88
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-27",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-28T11:39:17Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 89
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-28",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-29T11:20:25Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 90
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-29",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-30T11:08:34Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 91,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-09-30",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-01T11:35:29Z",
      "point": 5.6,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 10.8,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "horizon_days": 92,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-01",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-02T11:04:45Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 93,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-02",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-03T10:22:35Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 94,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-03",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T11:05:06Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 95,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-04",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-05T12:13:55Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 96,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-05",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-06T12:00:06Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 97,
      "transit_share": 0.4099,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202608",
      "gpci_latest": 13.57
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-06",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-07T11:45:11Z",
      "point": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "band_high": null,
      "band_basis": "Re-derived each run from the estimator's own one-quarter-ahead back-test (model.estimator.backtest). Disrupted regime, Gulf production rising since 2Q26: from persistence (4.9, the anchor volume unchanged) to the estimator's worst measured miss, factor k=1.945, applied in the direction production moved.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": null,
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": true,
      "horizon_days": 98,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-07",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-08T11:59:48Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 12.9,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.076 (horizon 99 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.037, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 99,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-08",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T11:52:04Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.0,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.087 (horizon 100 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.052, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 100,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-09",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T11:09:02Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.1,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.098 (horizon 101 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.066, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 101,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-10",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:22:33Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.2,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.109 (horizon 102 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.081, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 102,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-11",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T13:06:23Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.3,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.120 (horizon 103 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.096, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 103,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-12",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T12:40:26Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.4,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.130 (horizon 104 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.111, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 104,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-13",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:08:13Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.5,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.141 (horizon 105 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.127, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 105,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-14",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T09:51:19Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.6,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.152 (horizon 106 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.142, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 106,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-15",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-16T09:44:19Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.7,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.163 (horizon 107 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.157, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 107,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-16",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T09:17:59Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.8,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.174 (horizon 108 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.173, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 108,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-17",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-18T09:31:45Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 13.9,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.185 (horizon 109 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.189, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 109,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-18",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-19T10:42:31Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.0,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.196 (horizon 110 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.204, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 110,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-19",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-20T09:59:25Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.1,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.207 (horizon 111 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.220, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 111,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-20",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-21T10:04:51Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.2,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.217 (horizon 112 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.236, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 112,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-21",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-22T10:06:58Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.3,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.228 (horizon 113 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.253, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 113,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-22",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-23T10:00:22Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.4,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.239 (horizon 114 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.269, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 114,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-23",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-24T09:29:26Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.5,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.250 (horizon 115 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.285, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 115,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-24",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-25T09:46:27Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.6,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.261 (horizon 116 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.302, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 116,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-25",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-26T11:02:19Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.7,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.272 (horizon 117 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.318, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 117,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-26",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-27T10:29:50Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.8,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.283 (horizon 118 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.335, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 118,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-27",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-28T11:18:14Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 14.9,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.293 (horizon 119 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.352, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 119,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-28",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-29T11:28:57Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 15.0,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.304 (horizon 120 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.369, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 120,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-29",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-30T11:21:17Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 15.1,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.315 (horizon 121 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.386, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 121,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-30",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-31T10:53:32Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 15.2,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.326 (horizon 122 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.403, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 122,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-10-31",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-11-01T11:48:03Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 15.3,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.337 (horizon 123 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.420, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 123,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    },
    {
      "for_date": "2026-11-01",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-11-02T13:26:53Z",
      "point": 6.3,
      "band_low": 4.9,
      "band_high": 15.4,
      "band_basis": "Extrapolated past the 92-day tested horizon (methodology.md section 39): forced disrupted-style band, widened geometrically from the back-tested miss factor k=1.937 via k_ext=k^(1+extra) with extra=0.348 (horizon 124 days past the 2Q26 anchor), giving k_ext=2.438, applied in the direction production has moved (rising) since the anchor quarter.",
      "anchor_period": "2Q26",
      "method": "gpci-transit-share",
      "regime": "disrupted",
      "regime_kind": "local",
      "suppressed": false,
      "extrapolated": "B",
      "horizon_days": 124,
      "transit_share": 0.4108,
      "gpci_latest_month": "202609",
      "gpci_latest": 15.42
    }
  ]
}